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The Drought Wears On
May 22, 2026
“One more rain” could make or break the Texas wheat crop, or at least most of it. On the Rolling Plains, Cody Pruser’s drought-stressed wheat is one rain away from being harvestable, while Tyler Norman, who farms in the Blacklands, said he could stand to miss a shower or two. In the Texas Panhandle, Collin Bowers, said it’s too late for most of his.
“What wheat crop?” Bowers, a cow-calf operator, countered. “We’ve already had an adjuster out on this wheat around Pampa. We took a couple bushel yields [from the adjuster] and turned cattle back out on it. We’re probably not even going to run a combine.”
It’s a different story in Grayson County, where Norman farms.
“The wheat in our area actually looks really good,” Norman said, comparing this time of year to the last two when the area received rainfall. “Hopefully, if the bad weather stays away in April, it looks like a pretty good wheat crop for the Blackland area in northeast Texas.”
Last year, Blackland wheat yields averaged anywhere from 65 to 80 bushels per acre, with test weights around 58, “which is really good,” Norman noted. He’s hoping for similar results this season.
Cold and dry
The Rolling Plains and Blacklands dodged a bullet during the state’s March cold snap. “Our wheat wasn’t as far along, which was a good thing,” Norman said. “Since planting, we’ve had great conditions and timely applications to get in the field to fertilize and spray fungicide and herbicide.”
The Panhandle wasn’t so lucky. Due to the dry and warm conditions, producers started irrigating earlier than normal, many before the March freeze. Collins’ neighbor near Spearman, lost about 60% to 80% of his crop to freeze damage. But drought is the bigger story. In Pruser’s area, if the forecast proves true, there may still be hope for his crop. “If it will rain this week, it’ll turn it around and look good. But if it doesn’t, it’s going to be a pretty sorry crop,” he said.
His region has pockets that will likely make above-average yields, around 60 bushels. But overall, he expects average to below-average yields.
“If it rains, it’ll probably be 30 to 60 bushels,” Pruser estimated. “We have a lot [of wheat] with a lot of potential. But like I say, it just has to rain.”
Collins’ wheat hasn’t received significant rainfall since October. “Even if we got a rain in the next couple of weeks, I don’t think it’s enough to help,” he said. “We have zero subsoil moisture.”
In addition to grain loss, the drought is also threatening hay production. “It’s not even going to make the hay we need,” said Collins, who farms and ranches with his brothers and father. “It stayed so darn dry that I’ve kept cattle on a bunch of this irrigated wheat — even that I usually hay.”
Insect and disease
In the Blacklands, Hessian flies are typically an issue, but Norman said they haven’t been this year. He credits better varieties and a corn-wheat rotation. But elsewhere, disease and insects have affected the state’s crop. Brown wheat mites and — for the first time — aphids are adding insult to injury on the Panhandle crop, Collins said. But due to the poor state of the crop, they treated a few fields around Pampa, so they’d have seed to harvest. Otherwise, they turned cattle back on the wheat.
On the Rolling Plains, growers are battling High Plains disease (HPD), a viral disease that originates in volunteer wheat and is transmitted by wheat curl mites.
“We’ve never dealt with it before,” Pruser said. “We’ve had a tremendous amount of mites coming off of all that volunteer wheat.”
There’s been an uptick this year of cotton fields with untreated volunteer wheat, Pruser said, and he speculates it’s reflective of the economic climate. “Nobody wants to spend money,” he said. “Everybody is feeling it and doesn’t want to spend money plowing or spraying it.”
Pruser estimates 1,000 of his acres will be severely impacted. “Some of it, I don’t know if it’ll even be harvestable. If it rains, we’ll see, but there’s quite a bit of it. I’m not sure anything can save it.”
Cutting back
High input costs coupled with low commodity prices have also prompted Pruser to cut back. At planting, he runs 40 Rock, a Simplot fertilizer. “We’ve cut back on the rate and started adding ESN [Environmentally Smart Nitrogen], a slow-release nitrogen (in simplified terms) that you mix with your 40 Rock. It’s really done well for us,” he said.
Pruser credits this duo for healthier plants. When it’s hot and dry, like the Southwest has experienced early this spring, he said the plants don’t look as stressed. He also noted he could tell the difference in one of his fields where he treated one half but not the other.
Norman, who also grows corn, is cutting back as well, only using fertilizer where it is “absolutely necessary.” He’s also limited field passes with his sprayer.
“If a field has grown up in weeds, instead of spraying it, we might take a trip with the tandem disk and go over it again rather than trying to keep the weeds at bay,” he said. “We’re watching our p’s and q’s, trying to limit what we use but not change our whole [farm’s] practices… trying to cut back just enough.”
Overall, Norman’s wheat looks promising. But success for all three producers relies on rain. Pruser needs moisture to have something to harvest, and Collins needs it so he’ll have hay. Norman needs it hold off so he can get combines in the field to harvest.
“We’re not at the finish line yet,” Norman said, “but it looks really good.”
Wheat outlook
Brandon Gerrish, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension specialist, provided the following wheat crop updates:
• In the Panhandle, the recent freeze came with temperatures in the single digits and teens, and it may have damaged wheat, which was already jointed or very close.
• Between Dumas and Plainview, there have been reports of dead dryland wheat due to drought.
• South of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, temperatures fell as low as 27 degrees where wheat was starting to head out.
• In Itasca, (south of Fort Worth), there have been reports of a failed wheat crop due to Hessian fly.
• Near Dallas, leaf rust has reached 70% to 80% leaf coverage of lower canopy leaves as far north as Ellis County.
• Crops in the Blacklands and in the San Angelo area look excellent.
• In Hill Country, wheat development is about two weeks ahead of average, with heads starting to show.
• Near College Station, some Hessian fly has been identified in both winter and spring wheat. Vernalization issues are becoming apparent in test plots, including some varieties that have not displayed them in the past.
• In the Rio Grande Valley, the first spring wheat trial was recently harvested in Lyford. Yields were low but impressive since that trial has only received 3.7 inches of rain during the growing season, and nothing since Jan. 24.
As Texas farmers anticipate wheat harvest, the fate of the wheat crop remains uncertain. With rain in the forecast for some, there is hope. But for others, the challenges of drought, disease and economic pressures may prove insurmountable.
“What wheat crop?” Bowers, a cow-calf operator, countered. “We’ve already had an adjuster out on this wheat around Pampa. We took a couple bushel yields [from the adjuster] and turned cattle back out on it. We’re probably not even going to run a combine.”
It’s a different story in Grayson County, where Norman farms.
“The wheat in our area actually looks really good,” Norman said, comparing this time of year to the last two when the area received rainfall. “Hopefully, if the bad weather stays away in April, it looks like a pretty good wheat crop for the Blackland area in northeast Texas.”
Last year, Blackland wheat yields averaged anywhere from 65 to 80 bushels per acre, with test weights around 58, “which is really good,” Norman noted. He’s hoping for similar results this season.
Cold and dry
The Rolling Plains and Blacklands dodged a bullet during the state’s March cold snap. “Our wheat wasn’t as far along, which was a good thing,” Norman said. “Since planting, we’ve had great conditions and timely applications to get in the field to fertilize and spray fungicide and herbicide.”
The Panhandle wasn’t so lucky. Due to the dry and warm conditions, producers started irrigating earlier than normal, many before the March freeze. Collins’ neighbor near Spearman, lost about 60% to 80% of his crop to freeze damage. But drought is the bigger story. In Pruser’s area, if the forecast proves true, there may still be hope for his crop. “If it will rain this week, it’ll turn it around and look good. But if it doesn’t, it’s going to be a pretty sorry crop,” he said.
His region has pockets that will likely make above-average yields, around 60 bushels. But overall, he expects average to below-average yields.
“If it rains, it’ll probably be 30 to 60 bushels,” Pruser estimated. “We have a lot [of wheat] with a lot of potential. But like I say, it just has to rain.”
Collins’ wheat hasn’t received significant rainfall since October. “Even if we got a rain in the next couple of weeks, I don’t think it’s enough to help,” he said. “We have zero subsoil moisture.”
In addition to grain loss, the drought is also threatening hay production. “It’s not even going to make the hay we need,” said Collins, who farms and ranches with his brothers and father. “It stayed so darn dry that I’ve kept cattle on a bunch of this irrigated wheat — even that I usually hay.”
Insect and disease
In the Blacklands, Hessian flies are typically an issue, but Norman said they haven’t been this year. He credits better varieties and a corn-wheat rotation. But elsewhere, disease and insects have affected the state’s crop. Brown wheat mites and — for the first time — aphids are adding insult to injury on the Panhandle crop, Collins said. But due to the poor state of the crop, they treated a few fields around Pampa, so they’d have seed to harvest. Otherwise, they turned cattle back on the wheat.
On the Rolling Plains, growers are battling High Plains disease (HPD), a viral disease that originates in volunteer wheat and is transmitted by wheat curl mites.
“We’ve never dealt with it before,” Pruser said. “We’ve had a tremendous amount of mites coming off of all that volunteer wheat.”
There’s been an uptick this year of cotton fields with untreated volunteer wheat, Pruser said, and he speculates it’s reflective of the economic climate. “Nobody wants to spend money,” he said. “Everybody is feeling it and doesn’t want to spend money plowing or spraying it.”
Pruser estimates 1,000 of his acres will be severely impacted. “Some of it, I don’t know if it’ll even be harvestable. If it rains, we’ll see, but there’s quite a bit of it. I’m not sure anything can save it.”
Cutting back
High input costs coupled with low commodity prices have also prompted Pruser to cut back. At planting, he runs 40 Rock, a Simplot fertilizer. “We’ve cut back on the rate and started adding ESN [Environmentally Smart Nitrogen], a slow-release nitrogen (in simplified terms) that you mix with your 40 Rock. It’s really done well for us,” he said.
Pruser credits this duo for healthier plants. When it’s hot and dry, like the Southwest has experienced early this spring, he said the plants don’t look as stressed. He also noted he could tell the difference in one of his fields where he treated one half but not the other.
Norman, who also grows corn, is cutting back as well, only using fertilizer where it is “absolutely necessary.” He’s also limited field passes with his sprayer.
“If a field has grown up in weeds, instead of spraying it, we might take a trip with the tandem disk and go over it again rather than trying to keep the weeds at bay,” he said. “We’re watching our p’s and q’s, trying to limit what we use but not change our whole [farm’s] practices… trying to cut back just enough.”
Overall, Norman’s wheat looks promising. But success for all three producers relies on rain. Pruser needs moisture to have something to harvest, and Collins needs it so he’ll have hay. Norman needs it hold off so he can get combines in the field to harvest.
“We’re not at the finish line yet,” Norman said, “but it looks really good.”
Wheat outlook
Brandon Gerrish, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension specialist, provided the following wheat crop updates:
• In the Panhandle, the recent freeze came with temperatures in the single digits and teens, and it may have damaged wheat, which was already jointed or very close.
• Between Dumas and Plainview, there have been reports of dead dryland wheat due to drought.
• South of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, temperatures fell as low as 27 degrees where wheat was starting to head out.
• In Itasca, (south of Fort Worth), there have been reports of a failed wheat crop due to Hessian fly.
• Near Dallas, leaf rust has reached 70% to 80% leaf coverage of lower canopy leaves as far north as Ellis County.
• Crops in the Blacklands and in the San Angelo area look excellent.
• In Hill Country, wheat development is about two weeks ahead of average, with heads starting to show.
• Near College Station, some Hessian fly has been identified in both winter and spring wheat. Vernalization issues are becoming apparent in test plots, including some varieties that have not displayed them in the past.
• In the Rio Grande Valley, the first spring wheat trial was recently harvested in Lyford. Yields were low but impressive since that trial has only received 3.7 inches of rain during the growing season, and nothing since Jan. 24.
As Texas farmers anticipate wheat harvest, the fate of the wheat crop remains uncertain. With rain in the forecast for some, there is hope. But for others, the challenges of drought, disease and economic pressures may prove insurmountable.